The election results surprised everyone it seems from pollsters, politicians and pundits. Apart from the SNP's clean sweep in Scotland it was night of confounded predictions. No one, including David Cameron, expected an outright Conservative majority. It turns out the only poll that could be trusted was the exit poll, which means a fair percentage of the English electorate either lied or changed their minds at the last minute. There must be secret Tory voters, who are ashamed to tell people they vote Conservative, is already the refrain from the Labour camp. Voting Conservative is something embarrassing, the left-leaning commentariat claim so it proves we have the moral authority. Murdoch and the Tory press frightened voters at the last minute, they didn't really know what they were doing. The electorate let us down complain Labour's many celebrity friends, the electorate must be selfish and confused.
As someone who grew up in a Left wing activist household in the 1980s this all feels very familiar. My father stood as a Labour candidate in Faversham in 1983, a Tory safe seat, trying to win votes on the Tony Benn inspired manifesto, which Healey dubbed 'the longest suicide note in history.' I remember being out on the campaign trail and aged eight, I could see that Labour's platform was hopeless. I didn't understand the details at the time, but I do remember doors being slammed and general hostility - that's a pretty clear hint. My brother and I were probably there to moderate the voters' reaction. Respect to my dad, it was ballsy to knock on doors with Union Jack flags flying and propose nationalising the FTSE 100 companies to self-employed tradesmen and their wives. I don't think the proposal to set up socialist puppy farms, which was also in the manifesto, ever came up on the canvassing trail, but that idea might have stood a better chance than suggesting we scrap our nuclear deterrent at the height of the Cold War and the wake of the Falklands.
The 1983 was a catastrophe for Labour, 2015 is not quite as bad but the omens are not good for Labour's future. As someone who believes that we all benefit from a vibrant democracy where the governing party faces proper opposition it seems as if Labour is repeating the mistakes of the eighties, with a 21st century spin. The parallels are striking, so I'll take trip down memory lane:
The blame game
Instead of asking tough questions about why more people didn't vote for Labour, blame the electorate for being selfish, stupid, scared or just plain lazy. They should know better and they let us down. This never plays well with the general public. A restauranteur that insults his potential customers finds himself with rows of empty tables; don't expect anyone to vote for you if you call them names. If you want a voter to change allegiance, then calling them an ignorant fascist might make you feel better, it won't put that crucial tick next to the red rose.
Blame the media. In the eighties, there was perhaps more truth to this assertion where the press was more influential and skewed to the right. But even then, it's odd to claim that print journalism makes people vote Conservative yet the BBC, who have strong left wing biase and dominate broadcasting would have no power. Why should an editorial in The Sun have some special pull and documentaries and drama produced by the BBC about the impact of Thatcher's policies make no difference? It's really another way of blaming the electorate, by saying they are so weak and easily led that policies don't matter, it's pun-based headlines in the red tops that carry the day.
Blame events. In 1983, the Falklands War won Thatcher the election, apparently. Though you could ask the question why a left-wing party was opposed to military action against a murderous right-wing junta who launched an unprovoked attack on British sovereign territory. The Argentinian army liked to torture trade unionists and liberal journalists, then dumped their mangled and mutilated corpses at sea. They were the bad guys in that scenario. Without the invasion, no sinking of the Belgrano, so returning over and over, as many on the Left did to that supposed crime made them seem disconnected from the real world.
In 2015, there's no direct equivalent, though the continued stagnation in Europe has some parallels. Much of Southern Europe is mired in a deflationary rut, with shocking levels of unemployment caused by a faulty currency union imposed by a political elite with the support of big business. You'd think that might be fertile ground for a progressive opposition, who would stand up for the young who can't get jobs and have no prospects. Except Labour is committed to an unreformed EU and opposed to a democratic referendum. It's those pesky voters; they just can't be trusted. They might be racists or Little Englanders.
Famous Friends
In the eighties, Labour had the backing of the overwhelming majority of famous actors, musicians, and comedians who all hated Maggie, because that's what you did. The Conservatives could manage Kenny Everett and I think Ken Dodd. These days, Russell Brand, Stephen Fry, Steve Coogan, Eddie Izzard to name but a few have all come out in support of Labour. It's an impressive roster and would make one hell of a benefit gig. The danger is confusing celebrities with the electorate. Just because all the famous people Ed Milliband knew in the Islington set were on his side, tells you nothing about your average Joe or Jane. Moreover, there is something very patronising about people who are very successful at acting or live comedy, believing that gives them a mandate to talk with authority about politics. The general public will go to their gigs, even laugh at a stream of anti-Tory jokes, it doesn't mean they are Labour supporters. Jokes are just jokes and generally the Tories are better source material.
Think of it another way, you'll take advice from a plumber on central heating boilers, less likely to follow his guidance on pension plans. Celebrities like Brand with their 10 million Twitter followers are so used to adulation and agreement from those around them, whether its agents, fans, producers and assorted minions, they forget that it's all contextual to their role as entertainer. Lots of people may find Stephen Fry's Twitter feed interesting and enjoy watching him host QI, it's not the same as trusting him when it comes to marco-economics and public policy. Why should you, it's not his area of expertise? Witty observations and clever innuendo do not help you meet the funding challenges of an ageing population and a structural deficit. Comedians should stick to comedy, politicians should stick to politics.
In 2015, this syndrome is more acute, as Labour's leadership and celebrity followers are focused almost exclusively in central London. Inner London may be a dynamic, vibrant, multi-cultural hub, it's nothing like the rest of Britain and you can't take offence when the rest of Britain thinks and acts differently to the clientele of Shoreditch House.
The Wrong Leader
Michael Foot was the wrong man to lead the Labour party in 1983; Ed Miliband was the wrong choice in 2015. Listing the reasons why misses the point. Even die-hard supporters must have known in their heart of hearts that Michael Foot stood no chance against Margaret Thatcher, yet he was nominated all the same.
David Cameron is far less impressive opponent that the Iron Lady. An Old Etonian whose Bullingdon Club picture still haunts him is a poor poster boy for a party preaching the gospel of free enterprise and meritocracy. Yeah right, thought many voters, enough still voted for him, perhaps with regret.
Faced by David Milliband, for example, the campaign might have gone differently. But no amount of debate coaching, focus groups and media training changes the fact that Ed Miliband was not a born leader. You know it when you see it, he wasn't it. If you elect an unpopular candidate with little charisma or charm, the voters will reject him. And they did.
Dead Left
The biggest mistake that Labour made and it probably cost them the election was to turn into the dead end of hard left policies. Miliband's talk of rent controls, fixing energy prices and punitive taxation was not as extreme as the Bennite lunacies of the eighties, but it was enough to spook the swing vote. Combine that with the prospect of SNP, extracting £140 billion of spending pledges as a price of coalition, then the English electorate looked at the options and chose the Conservatives.
You cannot win elections in the UK when you move from away from moderate or centre left policies, when you consider the electoral maths which hasn't changed in decades. Scotland is a special case, it doesn't carry enough seats to win, so though the SNP surge harmed Labour, it wasn't the sole reason for their failure.
A majority of the English electorate are naturally conservative; when you combine the UKIP and Conservative vote it's well over 50%. To win, Labour has to take seats outside of the Northern heartlands and the London bubble. When you step outside the echo chamber of the Guardian website, there is minimal support for hard left policies and no amount of wishful thinking, marches, petitions, ranting and emotional tirades will alter that political calculation.
The genius of Blair and the New Labour project was to gain a mandate for increased public spending from a naturally conservative electorate. He did so by appealing to people's aspirations and concerns rather than firing up the base. There's any number of policies Labour could have proposed that would have resonated well with middle England and presented a serious threat to the Tories. Here's just a few that spring to mind:
- a major house building programme from both private and public developers.
- splitting too-big-to-fail banks into retail, utility units and investment operations.
- promotion of technical training and apprenticeships.
- reversing the cuts in frontline troops and whilst making big cuts to MoD bureaucrats.
- a referendum on EU membership.
- replacement of pensions and NI with a compulsory saving scheme with individual state-backed pension accounts.
- putting doctors in charge of the NHS
Labour did none of these and instead too refuge in token hard left policies like the mansion tax and raising the top rate of tax that generate no revenue and gained little traction. They paid the price on election night and if they retreat into the fantasy world of Poly Toynbee and Owen Jones, blaming the establishment and a right-wing conspiracy for their defeat, Labour may be out of power for good.
To win elections, you must win over voters. They forgot this most basic rule of politics and seem reluctant to accept reality. That's shame, even for me, who believes in a smaller state and lower taxation. The country needs a dynamic, credible opposition to call those wielding power to account. Hanging out with lightweights like Russell Brand may be great for selfies, it doesn't win you votes.
